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Mortgage Rate Watch

A new home can be the biggest purchase of your life. Before you start looking for the right home, you may want to research your mortgage options.

But not all mortgages are created equal. So, by doing your research beforehand, you can choose the option that best suits your financial situation and potentially puts more money in your pocket. You also know what guidelines to follow when applying.

Types of mortgages

  • Conventional loan – Best for borrowers with a good credit score
  • Jumbo loan – Best for borrowers with excellent credit looking to buy an expensive home
  • Government-insured loan – Best for borrowers who have lower credit scores and minimal cash for a down payment
  • Fixed-rate mortgage – Best for borrowers who’d prefer a predictable, set monthly payment for the duration of the loan
  • Adjustable-rate mortgage – Best for borrowers who aren’t planning to stay in the home for an extended period, would prefer lower payments in the short-term and are comfortable with possibly having to pay more in the future

Conventional loans, which are not backed by the federal government, come in two forms: conforming and non-conforming.

Conforming loans – As the name implies, a conforming loan “conforms” to the set of standards put in place by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which includes credit, debt and loan size. For 2023, the conforming loan limits are $726,200  in most areas and $1,089,300 in high-cost areas.

Non-conforming loans – These loans do not meet FHFA standards. Instead, they cater to borrowers looking to purchase more-expensive homes or individuals with unusual credit profiles.

Pros of conventional loans

  • Can be used for a primary home, second home or investment property
  • Overall borrowing costs tend to be lower than other types of mortgages, even if interest rates are slightly higher
  • Can ask your lender to cancel private mortgage insurance (PMI) once you’ve reached 20 percent equity, or refinance to remove it
  • Can pay as little as 3 percent down on loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
  • Sellers can contribute to closing costs

Cons of conventional loans

  • Minimum FICO score of 620 or higher is often required (the same applies for refinancing)
  • Higher down payment than some government loans
  • Must have a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of no more than 45 percent (50 percent in some instances)
  • Likely need to pay PMI if your down payment is less than 20 percent of the sales price
  • Significant documentation required to verify income, assets, down payment and employment

Who are conventional loans best for?

If you have a strong credit score and can afford to make a sizable down payment, a conventional mortgage is probably your best pick. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is the most popular choice for homebuyers.

Jumbo mortgages are home loan products that fall outside FHFA borrowing limits. Jumbo loans are more common in higher-cost areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City and the state of Hawaii, where home prices are often on the higher end.

Pros of jumbo loans

  • Can borrow more money to purchase a more expensive home
  • Interest rates tend to be competitive with other conventional loans
  • Often the only finance option in areas with extremely high home values

Cons of jumbo loans

  • Down payment of at least 10 percent to 20 percent required in many cases
  • A FICO score of 700 or higher usually required
  • Cannot have a DTI ratio above 45 percent
  • Must show you have significant assets in cash or savings accounts
  • Usually require more in-depth documentation to qualify

Who are jumbo loans best for?

If you’re looking to finance a home with a selling price exceeding the latest conforming loan limits, a jumbo loan is likely your best route.

The U.S. government isn’t a mortgage lender, but it does play a role in making homeownership accessible to more Americans by guaranteeing certain types of loans — thus lessening the risk for lenders. Three government agencies back mortgages: the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

  • FHA loans – Backed by the FHA, these home loans come with competitive interest rates, and help make homeownership possible for borrowers without a large down payment or pristine credit. You’ll need a minimum FICO score of 580 to get the FHA maximum of 96.5 percent financing with a 3.5 percent down payment.  However, a score as low as 500 is allowed if you put at least 10 percent down. FHA loans require mortgage insurance premiums, which can increase the overall cost of your mortgage. Lastly, with an FHA loan, the home seller is allowed to contribute to closing costs.
  • USDA loans – USDA loans help moderate- to low-income borrowers who meet certain income limits buy homes in rural, USDA-eligible areas. Some USDA loans do not require a down payment for eligible borrowers. There are extra fees, though, including an upfront fee of 1 percent of the loan amount (which can typically be financed with the loan) and an annual fee.
  • VA loans – VA loans provide flexible, low-interest mortgages for members of the U.S. military (active duty and veterans) and their families. There’s no minimum down payment, mortgage insurance or credit score requirement, and closing costs are generally capped and may be paid by the seller. VA loans charge a funding fee, a percentage of the loan amount, which can be paid upfront at closing or rolled into the cost of the loan along with other closing costs.

Pros of government-insured loans

  • Help you finance a home when you don’t qualify for a conventional loan
  • Credit requirements more relaxed
  • Don’t need a large down payment
  • Available to repeat and first-time buyers
  • No mortgage insurance and no down payment required for VA loans

Cons of government-insured loans

  • Mandatory mortgage insurance premiums on FHA loans that usually cannot be canceled
  • FHA loan sizes are lower than conventional mortgages in most areas, limiting potential inventory to choose from
  • Borrower must live in the property (although you may be able to finance a multi-unit building and rent out other units)
  • Could have higher overall borrowing costs
  • Expect to provide more documentation, depending on the loan type, to prove eligibility

Who are government-insured loans best for?

Are you having trouble qualifying for a conventional loan due to a lower credit score or minimal cash reserves for a down payment? FHA-backed and USDA-backed loans could be a viable option. For military service members, veterans and eligible spouses, VA-backed loan terms are often more generous than a conventional loan’s.

Fixed-rate mortgage

Fixed-rate mortgages maintain the same interest rate over the life of your loan, which means your monthly mortgage payment always stays the same. Fixed loans typically come in terms of 15 years or 30 years, although some lenders allow borrowers to pick any term between eight and 30 years.

Pros of fixed-rate mortgages

  • Monthly principal and interest payments stay the same throughout the life of the loan
  • Easier to budget housing expenses from month to month

Cons of fixed-rate mortgages

  • If interest rates fall, you’ll have to refinance to get that lower rate
  • Interest rates typically higher than rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)

Who are fixed-rate mortgages best for?

If you are planning to stay in your home for at least five to seven years, and want to avoid the potential for changes to your monthly payments, a fixed-rate mortgage is right for you.

In contrast to fixed-rate loans, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have interest rates that fluctuate with market conditions. Many ARM products have a fixed interest rate for a few years before the loan changes to a variable interest rate for the remainder of the term. For example, you might see a 7/6 ARM, which means that your rate will remain the same for the first seven years and will adjust every six months after that initial period. If you consider an ARM, it’s essential to read the fine print to know how much your rate can increase and how much you could wind up paying after the introductory period expires.

Pros of ARMs

Lower fixed rate in the first few years of homeownership (although this isn’t a guarantee; as of late, 30-year fixed rates have actually been similar to those for 5/6 ARMs)
Can save a substantial amount of money on interest payments

Cons of ARMs

Monthly mortgage payments could become unaffordable, resulting in a loan default
Home values may fall in a few years, making it harder to refinance or sell before the loan resets

Who are adjustable-rate mortgages best for?

If you don’t plan to stay in your home beyond a few years, an ARM could help you save on interest payments. However, it’s important to be comfortable with a certain level of risk that your payments might increase if you’re still in the home.

Other types of home loans

In addition to these common kinds of mortgages, there are other types you may find when shopping around for a loan:

  • Construction loans: If you want to build a home, a construction loan can be a good financing choice — especially a construction-to-permanent loan, which converts to a traditional mortgage once you move into the residence. These short-term loans are best for applicants who can provide a higher down payment and proof that they can afford the monthly payments.
  • Interest-only mortgages: With an interest-only mortgage, the borrower makes interest-only payments for a set period – usually five and seven years — followed by payments for both principal and interest. You won’t build equity as quickly with this loan, since you’re initially only paying back interest. These loans are best for those who know they can sell or refinance, or for those who can reasonably expect to afford the higher monthly payment later.
  • Piggyback loans: A piggyback loan, also referred to as an 80/10/10 loan, involves two loans: one for 80 percent of the home price and another for 10 percent. You’ll make a down payment for the remaining 10 percent.These loan products are designed to help the borrower avoid paying for mortgage insurance. But piggyback loans require two sets of closing costs, and you’ll also accrue interest on two loans, making this unconventional arrangement these best for those who will actually save money using it.
  • Balloon mortgages: A balloon mortgage requires a large payment at the end of the loan term. Generally, you’ll make payments based on a 30-year term, but only for a short time, such as seven years. When the loan term ends, you’ll make a large payment on the outstanding balance, which can be unmanageable if you’re not prepared or your credit situation deteriorates. These loans are best for those who have the stable financial resources needed to make a large balloon payment once the loan term ends.

 

Mortgage Rates Continue Lower
Mortgage rates continue the slow, bumpy process of healing from the rapid rise seen 2 weeks ago. Last week was a solid victory in that sense with rates moving steadily and meaningfully lower without any major rebounds. The present week started out on shakier footing as rates lurched higher on Monday. Fortunately, the sailing has been smoother since then. Today was actually the best day of the week so far for the underlying bond market. Most of the improvement happened in overseas trading overnight, but gains continued in the U.S.  The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.04% from yesterday. Based on the timing of the bond market gains, if nothing were to change overnight, the average lender would be able to move slightly lower again tomorrow.   NOTE: the preceding is not a prediction.  It's merely a comment on the fact that the bond market improved a bit more than the average mortgage rate would suggest.  There's never a guarantee that bonds will do any particular thing between now and the next time mortgage lenders are setting rates for the day.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 days 4 hours ago

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Mortgage Rates Pulled in Two Directions, But End Day Lower
Mortgage rates are an extension of the financial market, so it's no surprise that they've been more volatile than normal over the past few weeks as markets react to fiscal headlines. The latest dust-up involved Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell which resulted in higher rates over the weekend. Now today we've had several comments from Trump (starting yesterday evening) saying that he was never planning to fire Powell and just generally conveying a more measured tone. Financial markets responded favorably. Had this been the only news of the day, rates would have dropped almost an eighth of a point.  We can arrive at this conclusion due to trading levels in the bond market at the time.  But other news pushed back in the other direction. Specifically, a closely watched gauge of business activity showed the sharpest spike in prices in 13 months in the services sector and 29 months for the manufacturing sector. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all other things being equal. Many mortgage lenders were forced to raise rates during the day, ultimately resulting in today's average being only modestly lower than yesterday's.  

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 days 4 hours ago

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Mortgage Rates Hold Almost Perfectly Steady
In not so many words, last week's thesis was that "no news was good news" for mortgage rates.  Specifically, an absence of major, unexpected developments on the topic of tariffs and trade helped the underlying bond market retrace some of the recent steps. Those steps resulted in the highest rates in several months and one of the biggest weekly rate spikes in years. The present week began with echoes of that unpleasantness. Headlines regarding Trump's comments about Fed Chair Powell rattled the market and sent rates lurching higher. Now, 24 hours later, an absence of any additional escalation has given way to calmer market movement and generally flat interest rates. In fact, it has been one of the very calmest days in recent memory for mortgage rates.  Not only is today's average effectively right in line with yesterday's latest levels. There hasn't even been any intraday changes among mortgage lenders. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only make adjustments if the bond market experiences sufficient volatility. Lately, that's been a rule rather than an exception. Today, however, we haven't seen enough bond market movement to prompt any intraday changes, thus leaving the top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate just under 7% for the average lender. 

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 4 days 5 hours ago

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Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7%
Last week was a hopeful one for interest rates.  The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell more than 0.20% from the previous week's highs as underlying markets took some solace in the absence of major trade war escalations. Despite the solid improvement, the outright level of rates remained elevated compared to most of the past 2 months. In addition, the risk of volatility could not (and cannot) be ruled out when the market is more willing to react to fiscal policy headlines than economic data. The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders are expressing that sentiment by pushing stocks lower and rates higher. Mortgage rates jumped fairly sharply today, with the average lender moving up from 6.87% to just under 7.00% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 5 days 4 hours ago

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Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Today, But Lower on The Week
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days of the week brought the most meaningful improvement and it's been slow going since then. In fact, today ended up going slowly in the other direction with the average lender moving slightly higher in rate compared to yesterday. The pace of movement is nothing like we saw last week, thankfully. The financial markets that underlie rates are definitely taking a breather after the extreme volatility last week, but until fiscal policies are firmly decided and on cruise control, it's a good idea to remain vigilant against heighted volatility.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 1 week 2 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Extend Winning Streak as Familiar Pattern Returns
As markets digested implications of several fiscal policy changes over the past 2 months, a predictable trading pattern emerged. Stocks and interest rates moved lower together. This isn't always the way things work, but it is typical during moments where investors are rapidly shedding risk and seeking safer havens. The pattern broke down last week, for a variety of mostly arcane reasons. This meant that rates moved sharply higher even as stocks continued to fall. Although it's far too soon to declare victory against that volatility, we're now seeing the bond market (the thing that dictates interest rate movement) act a bit more like its normal self. In other words, today's data and events contributed to heavy stock losses, and bonds were willing to pick up enough of the slack for interest rates to move lower. This is the 3rd straight day of declines and it brings the conventional 30yr fixed rate back under 6.875% for the average top tier conventional loan.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 1 week 3 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Continue Lower Amid Calmer Financial Markets
Financial markets experienced relatively extreme volatility on several occasions following the April 2nd tariff announcements. The bonds that underlie mortgage rates were no exception, thus pushing rates higher at one of the fastest weekly paces in years.  Things have been calmer so far this week, with the first two days looking more like a typical highly active trading day from before the tariff announcement.  Both the mortgage bonds and mortgage lenders appreciate lower volatility. It is especially appreciated at the moment because it is taking bonds back toward their previous range.   The average lender had already moved top tier 30yr fixed rates back under 7% yesterday. Today simply added to the momentum.   Despite the friendly move and the relative calm, this still isn't an environment where it makes sense to take anything for granted in terms of today's rates being available beyond the present day.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 1 week 4 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7%
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more abrupt weeks for rising rates over the past few years. Things are getting off to a friendlier start in the present week with the 30yr fixed rate index edging back below 7%--roughly in line with levels seen last Wed/Thu.   As is true for most markets at the moment, the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) continues a general pattern of reacting to developments on tariffs and fiscal policy. Friday evening's updates on tariff exclusions for certain tech-related imports helped bonds set up for today's lower rates.   Despite the improvements today, rates remain at risk of higher potential volatility as fiscal details continue coming into focus. 

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 1 week 5 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Jump Back Above 7%
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure.  As an example, the poster child for the U.S. bond market, the 10yr Treasury, saw its biggest week-over-week increase since 1981.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds that share many similarities with U.S. Treasuries, so it's no surprise to see chaos in that market and a concomitant jump in mortgage rates.  In general, mortgage rates and bond yields are exceptionally well correlated (after all, a "yield" is the rate paid by a bond). As with much of this week's drama, today's move didn't have one distinct motivation.  The weakness speaks to a broad shift in the outlook for US Treasury demand. Digging any deeper would require esoteric explanations of underlying market structures.  The bottom line is that investors are rattled by rapid changes in policy, as well as uncertainty about how those changes will ultimately settle and impact the market. As for the mortgage market, we've certainly seen worse individual days and weeks, but the rate spike definitely ranks on the brisk side of the spectrum. The average lender moved up by roughly an eighth of a percent today with the nearest typical quoted rate being 7.125% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed. This is roughly half a percent higher than last Friday, which makes this the biggest weekly jump since early 2022.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 weeks 1 day ago

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Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be fair, Freddie's survey is perfectly real, but it's unfortunately quite stale. That isn't always a problem, but it is today. Freddie reports that this week's mortgage rates fell to 6.62 from 6.64. Per survey methodology, that's the average rate between last Thursday and yesterday. The issue is that there's been a lot of upward rate movement during the past few days--more than enough to see that today's rates are significantly higher than anything seen last week, or last month, for that matter. The average lender is up about 0.30-0.35% from the end of last week.  There are several reasons that the blue line is almost always higher than the orange line, but that's not important for today. What's important is that there's been a fairly big jump in rates that the Freddie survey is too stale to have caught. News outlets will run stories suggesting mortgage rates are lower this week when, in fact, they are markedly higher.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 weeks 2 days ago

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Wild Ride For Mortgage Rates, Should Spill Into Tomorrow Too
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day.  This is just as true for stocks as it is for the bond market that dictates interest rate movement. Overnight, stocks and bonds both deteriorated substantially.  When it comes to bonds, that means prices moved lower and yields (another word for "rates") move higher. In other words, bond yields tend to move in the same direction as mortgage rates, and both were up BIG this morning.  In fact, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate was all the way up to 7.0% for the first time since February 19th. In not so many words, the implementation of higher tariffs has been behind the weakness in markets. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see a massive reversal in markets this afternoon after the Trump administration announced a 90 day pause on new tariffs for all countries but China. This was one of the most jarring trading days for mortgage specific bonds (in terms of the juxtaposition of big losses and big gains) in decades.  Only a small handful of similar examples exist going back to the financial crisis. In fact, mortgage-backed bonds made it all the way back to "unchanged" levels by the end of the day after being relatively terrible shape at 1pm ET.  In a perfect world, that would mean mortgage rates could be at the same levels as yesterday afternoon, but sadly, that's not the way it works.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 weeks 3 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Levels Since February
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff plans.  While interest rates had previously benefited from some of the chaos in the stock market, that ship has sailed. Now, both sides of the market are losing ground (stocks lower, rates higher). Today's rate increase wasn't nearly as big as yesterday's, but it's no less notable because it officially takes the average 30yr fixed rate to the highest level since late February.  This is the biggest 2 day rate increase so far this year, but if you didn't know about the past 4 days, current levels wouldn't look too troubling. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] As for motivations, that's a fairly esoteric discussion compared to last week's simple conclusions about investors selling stocks and seeking safety in the bond market (something that pushes rates lower). After all, the opposite correlation is now in effect.  Esoteric stuff follows: Part of the issue is the varying levels of performance between longer and shorter term rates. For example, 10yr Treasury yields are up substantially, but 2 year Treasury yields are actually down a bit.  We can also consider that this week plays host to several big Treasury auctions and investors are hesitant to keep bonds at higher prices (same thing as lower yields/rates) until we get past the auctions. There's also the matter of future Treasury issuance implications and future demand changes surrounding tariffs.  Specifically, if trade decreases and if we're relying on tariffs for revenue, we would need to issue more Treasuries to make up for the revenue shortfall.  Treasury issuance puts upward pressure on rates, all else equal. 

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 weeks 4 days ago

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Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates.  Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing."  In other words, the prospect of trade wars between the US and numerous foreign countries has generally caused weakness in the stock market and strength in the bond market (stronger bonds = lower rates).  That pattern began breaking down on Friday, although it wasn't apparent at the time because mortgage rates still managed to close at the lowest levels of the year. Notably, though, rates began Friday at even lower levels. Lenders were forced to increase rates in response to bond market weakness. That weakness kicked into overdrive Today. While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady selling pressure all day. As a result, mortgage lenders were under progressive pressure to bump today's mortgages rates higher several times.  The net effect is that we've moved from 2025's lowest rates to highest since late February in the space of 24 hours.  That said, today's highs are right in line with many other days from the past several weeks.  In nuts and bolts terms, this means the average top tier 30yr fixed rate was briefly as low as 6.55% on Friday morning and is now at 6.82%.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 2 weeks 5 days ago

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Rate Rally Reverses, But Focus on Bigger Picture
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed about that would be to focus on the fact that rates were even lower this morning. Rates fell sharply due to the market's ongoing reaction to Wednesday's tariff announcement and especially due to China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs overnight.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their strongest levels right at the start of domestic trading, but progressively erased gains.  Why? There are several ways to make a case for Friday's rate reversal. These include but are not limited to 3 key events: A reasonably strong jobs report News that Vietnam would lower tariffs on the U.S. (which acted as a proof of concept suggesting tariffs could end up being less onerous than feared) Fed Chair Powell expressing renewed concern over the inflationary impact of tariffs as opposed to offering any indication that the Fed would be eager to cut rates in response to economic turmoil In addition to those actual nuts and bolts, one could also consider that rates quite simply covered a ton of ground this week, relative to their recent tendencies, and it's not unheard of for traders to circle the wagons on a Friday afternoon (i.e. to push back slightly on the prevailing momentum). Again, the average rate is still as low as it's been since October. If there's anything to be less than enthusiastic about, it's the fact that the nature of this motivation means that volatility remains a distinct risk, for better or worse.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 weeks 1 day ago

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Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 5 Months
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower bond yields. Stocks don't always correlate with bond yields, but that has been a common pattern since late February. The correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates, on the other hand, is perpetual and nearly flawless. After all, "yield" is just another word for "rate."  Additionally, mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are basically bonds.  All that to say: rates have been benefitting from the market chaos that's been hurting stocks, and stocks got hurt quite a bit over the past 24 hours.  Considering the average 30yr fixed rate was already close to its lowest levels since mid October yesterday, it's no surprise to see an official breakout today. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Tariffs and stock market volatility are not the only games in town for rates. Economic data is also very important and tomorrow's jobs report is typically the most important economic report of any given month. Depending on the results, it could help rates move even lower or bounce back up into the recent range. 

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 weeks 2 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon.  That's when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place.  There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news.  The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then.  As such, the favorable reaction to the tariff news merely got the bond market back to suggesting fairly flat interest rates compared to yesterday's latest levels.  Most lenders will wait until tomorrow to make any friendly adjustments, and that assumes bonds hold at the same levels overnight.   Bottom line: plenty of market volatility in the afternoon, but ultimately implying very little change in mortgage rates.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 weeks 3 days ago

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Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now.  In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.  It relied on the bond market's reaction to today's economic data.  Bonds drive rates, and econ data can be a key motivation for bonds. Weaker data tends to help bonds improve, thus pushing rates lower.  Several of this morning's economic reports were slightly weaker than expected. In and of themselves, they may not have helped rates, but with the unified message of economic uncertainty, it was enough to usher rates toward the lower range boundary.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 weeks 4 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week.  We haven't been outside of that range since then. Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range.  While it's not always apparent by the time mortgage lenders set rates for the day, the underlying bond market continues experiencing volatility behind the scenes. Recently, that volatility often aligns with the stock market as investors react to the economic implications of fiscal policies.  This could cause more movement on Wednesday when tariff details are expected to come out. In addition, this week's economic data is more than capable of moving the needle--especially Friday's jobs report.  As always, there's no way to know which direction rates will move in response to key events.  If there were, investors would move in that direction before the event, thus taking the probability back to 50% for either outcome.  

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 3 weeks 5 days ago

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Mortgage Rates Move Lower Even Though They Weren't Supposed To
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly.  The average lender is still a bit closer to the higher end of the recent range. In addition, the recent range is quite narrow with average top tier 30yr fixed rates never straying too far from 6.75 since late February. What made today interesting was the fact that rates moved lower at all.  As we often discuss, rates take lots of guidance from key economic reports such as this morning's PCE price index (a key inflation report). PCE arguably had more potential than any other economic data this week to cause a reaction in rates.  Conventional wisdom is clear on the reaction function: If inflation comes in higher than expected, rates are more likely to move up, all other things being equal.  In today's case, rates dropped even though inflation rose.  What's up with that? One mitigating factor is the fact that the unrounded PCE numbers were much closer to what the market was expecting.  In other words, inflation looked like it rose more than it actually did due to the custom of rounding the numbers to the nearest tenth of a percent.  Beyond that, it's also plain to see that the stock market fell significantly today--something that's recently been very likely to correlate with interest rates moving lower.  Last but not least, there are some advanced considerations that have to do with month and quarter end trading practices. A detailed explanation is beyond the scope of our coverage, but the gist is that month/quarter end can create rate movement in either direction without any motivation from economic data. With Monday being the last day of the month/quarter, we're certainly seeing some influence from this type of trading.

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 4 weeks 1 day ago

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Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Higher
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unfortunately, the low-volatility movement has been exclusively higher in rate and it's starting to add up.  In fact, as of today, the top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate is at the highest level in just over a month.  There was nothing special about today that led to that reality. It was just another day with minimal rate movement. When considering something like "the highest rates in a month," low volatility is the silver lining.  It means that there's really not much of a difference between the best and worst rate offerings of the past few weeks.  A longer term chart makes it fairly easy to see what sharper movement would look like. It also highlights the narrowness of the recent range compared to the range over the past 7 months.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

  Mortgage Rate Watch

 4 weeks 2 days ago

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1148 W Dillon Rd Ste 4, Louisville, CO 80027

Cole Turley-Allstate Agent

1920 W Babcock St, Bozeman, MT 59718

Ginny Gould - State Farm Insurance Agent

3200 W Marshall Ave, Longview, TX 75604